Friday, 29 May 2015

Japan's Core Consumer Price

Japan's core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, rose 0.3 percent in the year to April, roughly in line with a median market forecast for a 0.2 percent increase, but a long way off the BOJ target.
Analysts expect consumer prices to remain flat or even fall slightly year-on-year until around July or August, due to the effect of a plunge in gasoline prices last year.

The BOJ has said it will look through the effect of oil moves on inflation and count on rising wages to boost consumption and encourage firms to raise prices.

Many analysts say the weak spending data alone won't force the BOJ into an immediate monetary easing, betting instead that the central bank will wait until the second half of the year while scrutinizing wage and price trends.

Only last week, the BOJ raised its assessment on consumption and said a moderate recovery was under way, signaling that it has no plans to top up stimulus soon.

Behind the optimism was data that showed Japan's economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year in the first quarter, emerging from a tax hike-induced recession last year.

Still, there is no guarantee that consumers will soon start spending more. Renewed yen falls risk boosting import costs and pushing up grocery prices, offsetting the benefit many households have enjoyed from lower gasoline and fuel prices.

For many average Japanese, the benefits of premier Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus policies have been slow in coming.

"I certainly can't spend money like the Chinese tourists who come to buy in bulk," said Yoshiaki Yokoyama, 65, an insurance salesperson in Marunouchi, a business hub in Tokyo.

"Things are okay if you work for a big company or live in a major city. If you work for a small company or live in the countryside, things haven't improved that much."

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