Thailand
surprisingly reported quarterly growth for the first three months of
2015 but the economy is still stumbling one year after the army took
power.
The National
Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said on Monday the economy
expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.3 percent in the first quarter from
October-December, contrary to expectations in a Reuters poll for
shrinkage of 0.5 percent.
On an annual basis, the agency reported growth of 3.0 percent, below the poll forecast of 3.4 percent. The Thai economy had a very weak first quarter in 2014, as political tensions rose, so there was a low base for Monday's figures.
Along with first quarter numbers, the NESDB unveiled revisions to past ones, based on a technical rebasing of GDP data. October-December growth was revised to 1.1 percent from the prior quarter, rather than 1.7 percent.
The agency said the new series, long in preparation, had a little impact on first quarter GDP results. Some economists were skeptical.
Santitarn Sathirathai of Credit Suisse in Singapore said the reason Thailand avoided an on-quarter contraction "was largely because of that downward revision in Q4, which of course made the base easier".
He said that January-March's quarterly growth "hasn't changed the message that the momentum is quite weak in the first half of the year."
The NESDB said a "decent overall economic recovery" is under way, though problems include falling prices for farmers will hurt growth.
After the coup in May 2014, Thailand's big tourism sector has improved, but the main growth engines of consumption and exports have not been firing well at all.
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| A Thai farmer works on her rice field in Nakhonsawan province, north of Bangkok March 10, 2015. |
On an annual basis, the agency reported growth of 3.0 percent, below the poll forecast of 3.4 percent. The Thai economy had a very weak first quarter in 2014, as political tensions rose, so there was a low base for Monday's figures.
Along with first quarter numbers, the NESDB unveiled revisions to past ones, based on a technical rebasing of GDP data. October-December growth was revised to 1.1 percent from the prior quarter, rather than 1.7 percent.
The agency said the new series, long in preparation, had a little impact on first quarter GDP results. Some economists were skeptical.
Santitarn Sathirathai of Credit Suisse in Singapore said the reason Thailand avoided an on-quarter contraction "was largely because of that downward revision in Q4, which of course made the base easier".
He said that January-March's quarterly growth "hasn't changed the message that the momentum is quite weak in the first half of the year."
The NESDB said a "decent overall economic recovery" is under way, though problems include falling prices for farmers will hurt growth.
After the coup in May 2014, Thailand's big tourism sector has improved, but the main growth engines of consumption and exports have not been firing well at all.
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