Another policymaker who had penciled
in at least one hike in 2015, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, also
struck strongly dovish notes earlier this week. Rosengren warned that
not enough progress had been made on the jobs front or on pushing
inflation towards the Fed's two percent goal.
Both
Rosengren and Brainard also worried that weak consumer spending could
augur a more lasting slowdown in growth than earlier thought. The latest
data, released on June 1 after Yellen's most recent speech, showed
spending unexpectedly stalled in April as consumers saved more.
Even St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, typically one of the Fed's more hawkish officials, suggested on Wednesday that weaker-than-expected retail sales had raised some doubts about the strength of the recovery, though he still supported a hike in 2015.
Brainard or Rosengren could shift their projections for a rate hike to 2016 when the Fed releases its rate decision on June, according to JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.
While that would still leave a solid majority expecting rate hikes to start in 2015, more of those Fed officials may favor just one cautious move.
Bank of the West chief economist Scott Anderson, like most economists, still believes the first rate hike will take place in September, but "the next rate hike might not happen until January 2016," he said.
To TD Securities strategist Millan Mulraine, a strong payroll report on Friday will do little to change the Fed's dial, currently set to two rate hikes this year, starting in September.
Still, "a weak print will feed into the current concerns and push the Fed further away from near-term hikes," he said.
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| Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. |
Even St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, typically one of the Fed's more hawkish officials, suggested on Wednesday that weaker-than-expected retail sales had raised some doubts about the strength of the recovery, though he still supported a hike in 2015.
Brainard or Rosengren could shift their projections for a rate hike to 2016 when the Fed releases its rate decision on June, according to JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.
While that would still leave a solid majority expecting rate hikes to start in 2015, more of those Fed officials may favor just one cautious move.
Bank of the West chief economist Scott Anderson, like most economists, still believes the first rate hike will take place in September, but "the next rate hike might not happen until January 2016," he said.
To TD Securities strategist Millan Mulraine, a strong payroll report on Friday will do little to change the Fed's dial, currently set to two rate hikes this year, starting in September.
Still, "a weak print will feed into the current concerns and push the Fed further away from near-term hikes," he said.
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