U.S. job growth
likely cooled a bit in June after reaching a five-month high, but
still-healthy hiring would suggest the labor market is strong enough to
support a September interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
A Reuters survey
estimated that nonfarm payrolls rose 230,000 last month after May's
280,000 jump, the largest gain since December.
Even with a slowdown from the prior month, June's increase would be well above the average for the first five months of the year and more than sufficient to keep up with population growth.
"What matters is the trend. We are making a lot of progress in reducing slack and unless the labor market weakens sharply, the Fed is on track to raise interest rates in September," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.
The jobless rate is forecast to fall one-tenth of a percentage point back to a seven-year low of 5.4 percent, not far from the 5.0 percent to 5.2 percent range most Fed officials consider consistent with full employment.
The Labor Department's closely watched report, normally issued on a Friday, will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT) because of the Independence Day holiday.
Should the data meet expectations, it will be the latest indication the economy has rebounded from a first-quarter slump with a solid pace of growth during the April-June quarter.
From consumer spending to housing and consumer confidence, economic reports have had a decisively strong tone since May, prompting many forecasters to raise their second-quarter growth estimates to above a 3 percent annual pace. The economy contracted at a 0.2 percent rate in the first quarter.
Even with a slowdown from the prior month, June's increase would be well above the average for the first five months of the year and more than sufficient to keep up with population growth.
"What matters is the trend. We are making a lot of progress in reducing slack and unless the labor market weakens sharply, the Fed is on track to raise interest rates in September," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester Pennsylvania.
The jobless rate is forecast to fall one-tenth of a percentage point back to a seven-year low of 5.4 percent, not far from the 5.0 percent to 5.2 percent range most Fed officials consider consistent with full employment.
The Labor Department's closely watched report, normally issued on a Friday, will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT) because of the Independence Day holiday.
Should the data meet expectations, it will be the latest indication the economy has rebounded from a first-quarter slump with a solid pace of growth during the April-June quarter.
From consumer spending to housing and consumer confidence, economic reports have had a decisively strong tone since May, prompting many forecasters to raise their second-quarter growth estimates to above a 3 percent annual pace. The economy contracted at a 0.2 percent rate in the first quarter.
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